Recent bets for major technology developments in 2022 and beyond include metaverse, decentralized computing, and Web 3.0. If we take a look at tech trends from enterprise and security perspective, things like AI (artificial intelligence) and privacy are trending. Gartner Inc., a consultancy that advises corporations and other large organizations in IT and telecommunication related questions has published its tech predictions for 2022 and beyond.

The announcement Gartner Unveils Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2022 and Beyond makes bold, perhaps even radical statements about the development of technology for the next few years. Let's take a look at the highlights from Gartner's predictions.

Obfuscation of tracking

By 2024, 40% of internet users are tricking behavior tracking.

Increasing awareness of secret and not so secret data collection is creating pressure on big tech companies. Ad blockers, non-Android or non-iOS phones, VPNs, and other products have become common among normal internet users. Yet, tracking data is so valuable that big and small internet businesses continue doing it. Sharing false details or clicking on ads people aren’t interested in, among other tactics are direct ways to trick behavioral tracking.

I have been waiting for a piece of software that would run on my computer and phone, and would obfuscate tracking data for me. Perhaps such a product already exists?

Synthetic data

Data generated using AI techniques, known as synthetic data, will reduce personal data collection. By 2025, synthetic data is expected to reduce data collectors' privacy violation sanctions by 70%. The value of synthetic data comes from its ability to establish accurate personal profiles from less data than required today.

Perhaps ordinary people who access information and services on the internet are not happy about this development, but obfuscating tracking data should reduce the accuracy of information synthetic data can produce.

A cyberattack turns into a war

By 2024, a cyberattack will trigger a real world counter attack.

Critical regional and national infrastructure, like electric grid and water distribution systems have already experienced cyberattacks that have resulted complete or partial shutdowns of critical services. Gartner expects that a member of the G20 will suffer so severe infrastructure cyberattack that it will reciprocate with a declared physical attack.

Ever since I read This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race by Nicole Perlroth my attitude towards cyberthreats changed. The risks are real for everyone and every device connected to the internet. We made considerable changes in our cybersecurity setup, but the worry about something worse happening is there as Gartner notes.

Neuromining

A quarter of the largest corporations will be supplanted by businesses that master neurominining and can influence subconscious behavior by 2027. Neuromining, or mining brain data, is a concept for applying behavioral intelligence and related technology to analyze, understand and influence human behavior at scale. Daryl Plummer from Gartner says: "Most executives already appreciate that every company is a technology company. The winners of the next decade will be experts at neuromining."

One can only hope that privacy and security regulation can keep up with this development, among other similar initiatives. Hopefully no one tells about this technology to Mark Zuckerberg.

Internet access via satellites will bring billion more people to the digital world

One billion people in countries with poor infrastructure get access internet access via satellites by 2027. 50% of these people can raise out of poverty with the help of internet. The introduction of LEO (low Earth orbit) satellite constellations is the solution that makes the difference.

This must be one of the reasons corporations like Facebook and Google have been so active in developing their own satellite networks.

Africa will transform into a world-leading startup ecosystem through 2026

Developer talent will increase 30% (nearly 900,000 professional developers) in Africa through 2026, boosting the continent's tech sector, and rivaling Asia in venture fund growth. Venture capital is already flowing into Africa. Several countries have established innovation hubs to accelerate the development. For example, Kenya’s "Silicon Savannah" in East Africa with a one billion dollar tech ecosystem offers a platform for entrepreneurs, investors and technologists.

Non-fungible token (NFT) becomes real business

NFT shoots an enterprise into top 10 of corporations by value by 2026.

The value proposition for NFTs is the expectation that buyers who belong to a network of people with similar values and interests pay more for a digital artifact. 50% of publicly listed companies will have some sort of NFT supporting their brand and/or digital presence.

Modular business redesign

The modular redesign of operational assets to minimize interdependencies in an enterprise enables work to be recomposed quickly, easily and safely. Gartner calls this business composability. It introduces a competitive edge to an organization’s strategy, enabling managers to master change. By 2024, 80% of enterprises will list modular business redesign as a reason for better business performance.

Fewer bosses, more peer-to-peer

30% of work teams don't have a boss by 2024.

Remote work enforced by pandemic has far-reaching impacts on the way organizations are run. Remote work, or hybrid work (work done both in the office and at a remote location) will continue, changing the role of traditional managers. Peer-to-peer decision making that reduces bottlenecks and saves time reduces the need for command-and-control managers.

Non-profitable customers will readily be dropped

By 2025, 75% of companies will break up with customers that are costly to retain. This means that even if you are a business or consumer customer with an enterprise, it may evaluate that you are not bringing enough profit, and end the relationship.

Header image by Starlink.